UC Santa Barbara's 2035 Initiative Identifies Opportunity to Reduce 52% of Emissions Covered by Oregon's Climate Protection Program At Nine Large Industrial Facilities
For immediate release
SANTA BARBARA, CA (October 15, 2026) — A new report by The 2035 Initiative at UC Santa Barbara finds that Oregon's robust manufacturing sector, clean electricity grid, and climate policy leadership make the state well-positioned to advance industrial electrification. Taking advantage of this opportunity can generate long-term economic benefits for Oregonians, provide cleaner air for communities, and help the state reach its climate goals.
Like vehicles and home heating, manufacturing is being transformed by advanced electric technologies. Systems like high-temperature heat pumps, electrode boilers, and thermal batteries use less energy and are safer for workers than fossil fuel combustion. The report, Advancing Industrial Electrification in Oregon, analyzes the potential for deploying these technologies across nine of Oregon's largest industrial facilities in the chemicals, pulp & paper, and food & beverage sectors. These sectors collectively account for about 59% of the state's large manufacturing facility emissions.
"Oregon has one of the cleanest grids in the country, with more than 60% of the state's electricity generation coming from renewable sources. This makes process heat electrification a powerful decarbonization opportunity for Oregon's industry," said Dr. Eric Masanet, Professor and Mellichamp Chair of Sustainability Science for Emerging Technologies at UC Santa Barbara. "Our analysis shows that electrification, with ready-to-deploy technology, can translate into lasting climate and health benefits for Oregonians. The sooner Oregon industry electrifies, the sooner communities can start breathing cleaner air."
The researchers found that deploying efficient electric technologies could cut 11.5 million metric tons of GHG emissions from nine of Oregon's largest manufacturing facilities through 2050, after accounting for changes in grid emissions. This would also lower harmful local air pollution, resulting in $390–$520 million of cumulative health and economic benefits for Oregonians through 2050.
This comes at a crucial policymaking moment for Oregon. The Climate Protection Program (CPP) sets a declining cap on greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels across the state. Oregon is currently undergoing a rulemaking process for "emissions-intensive trade-exposed" (EITE) industries to determine emissions intensity benchmarks, which will set standards for compliance with the program. The researchers recommend setting sector-wide benchmarks and requiring a minimum of 2.5% annual reductions in climate pollution. The report finds that electrifying low-medium temperature process heat makes these reduction targets achievable, as electrification would eliminate up to 52% of CPP-covered emissions across the nine large EITE facilities studied.
"Oregon has the opportunity to achieve meaningful emissions reductions through its Climate Protection Program," said Dr. Leah Stokes, Anton Vonk Associate Professor of Environmental Politics at UC Santa Barbara. "The outcome of the current CPP rulemaking will be critical to meeting the program's goal of cutting covered emissions 50% by 2035. Additional state investments and electricity rate reforms would make huge strides in cleaning up Oregon's manufacturing sector."
This report on industrial electrification in Oregon builds on The 2035 Initiative's work creating a national roadmap, The Clean Heat Climate Opportunity: A Roadmap for Electrifying Low- and Medium-Temperature Industrial Heat, at the end of last year.
Burning fossil fuels to make heat for industrial manufacturing leads to significant GHG emissions and local air pollution. The report estimates that eliminating pollution with electrification would generate $390–$520 million of cumulative health and economic benefits for Oregonians through 2050 and reduce onsite fossil fuel emissions from process heat by up to 52% at nine of Oregon's largest manufacturing facilities.
The higher cost of electricity relative to natural gas in Oregon is a challenge. But, the researchers find that best-case opportunities in sectors like pulp & paper and chemicals could approach lifetime cost competitiveness with fossil fuel technology. And this does not have to mean higher prices – the report estimates that energy costs from electrification would add just 0.5-0.9% to total product costs.
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The 2035 Initiative at UC Santa Barbara is a cutting-edge "think-and-do" tank that brings together world-leading environmental policy research labs to develop actionable roadmaps for slashing climate pollution and ushering in a more equitable, resilient future. We use empirical research, policy development, and media engagement to support transformational policy change in the United States and across the planet. For more information, visit www.2035initiative.com.
Advancing Industrial Electrification in Oregon — the full analysis, figures, and policy recommendations.
Open the report → Read the primer →